How to win on football bets?

Of course, sports betting at non GamStop sportsbooks is becoming increasingly popular in times of modern media, faster data processing and attractive professional sports. So, it is no wonder that even the largest non GamStop sports betting providers are now firmly in the sponsorship programme of important institutions and organizations, as well as events. For many people, the weekly combination bet on the soccer Bundesliga is a very nice thing to give the game day the necessary spice.

This maximizes the excitement, but often also your wallet, because a successful combination bet can sometimes mean a big profit even with a small stake. But normally it is the bookmakers who take the profits.

This is due to many factors such as dynamic betting odds, the non GamStop bookmakers’ margin and many a surprise, which always ensures that the "safe" combination bet goes wrong! Over 90% of all sports betting fans certainly do not make big profits in the long run, if not even losses, and we think it is too easy to blame chance for this. In fact, there are ways and means to bet successfully at non GamStop football sites in the long run and sometimes to make a living from it if the winnings are right.

How to Correctly Analyze Matches As a Sports Bettor at Non GamStop Bookmakers?

In order to bet successfully in the long run, it is necessary to acquire some strategies. Of course, it is important not to give hasty advice. Even if FC Bayern Munich is the big favorite against FC Augsburg, that doesn't mean that you should bet house and yard on a big Bayern victory, even if Munich have always won the previous home games very well. An analysis starts with taking a closer look at the teams or players you want to bet on. Is there any special information to be aware of? In addition to the classic approaches such as balance sheets, home and away strength and table position, the match constellations must also be taken into account. In football, for example, it's not that far off the mark to look at whether key players are injured, suspended or possibly even rested for an important game.

Some players are simply irreplaceable and tear a big hole in the team. If a team's top scorer fails, it's difficult to bet on a game with many goals. If the defender is suspended, this can sometimes have a major impact on the stability of the back line. These thoughts are always an issue in sports with the classic classification, be it football, basketball or handball. Otherwise, a statistical approach is recommended. But this is not a panacea. Generally speaking, it is also important to choose the “right” games. This is difficult with Bayern games, for example, because Munich are always the big favorites and the betting odds at non GamStop bookmakers are correspondingly thin and unattractive. Value is found much more often in games where you would not expect it at first. But what is value and how can you roughly determine this value? Of course we want to explain this!

What Are Value Bets at Non GamStop Bookmakers?

The term value is closely linked to the term return on investment (ROI) and sometimes decides when a sports bettor makes a profit and how high it is. The mathematical law of large numbers plays a decisive role here.

This law says nothing other than that the relative frequency of a random outcome (or, in the case of sports betting at non GamStop bookmakers, a bet) usually stabilizes around the theoretical probability of a random outcome if the random experiment on which it is based is carried out again and again under the same conditions. A bet would have value if the expected profit was higher than the stake in the long term. However, since a match is not played any number of times, but only once, this approach is initially theoretical.

Example of a Value Bet in Football

An example from the last European Championship: Italy gets a 5.00 odds against Germany in the European Championship semifinals.

Many bettors at non GamStop betting sites were of the opinion that this result had little value because Germany simply had a great year and was the top favorite for the European Championship. But anyone who has analyzed the game more closely will have noticed that although Germany had only a few defeats this calendar year, there were also other factors that make these betting odds absurd. The win rate of 5.00 also roughly meant a 20% chance of winning. This would have meant if you play that bet 100 times and Italy wins 20 times you would end up around +-0. Value would then have this bet,

Although this is theoretical in nature, it shows very clearly how to make a profit with sports betting: It is essential to play higher odds than the probability of winning. Although this cannot be conveyed exactly, it can be narrowed down fairly well with good information and statistics.

This bet would also have value if Italy had a 30% chance of winning (and the Italians were still clear outsiders)! In the end, one should have considered the following: the Italians played a decent European Championship, wrested a 1-1 lead from world champion Spain, dominated against Croatia in a 1-1 draw and clearly beat Ireland in the last group game. They dominated the English side in the quarter-finals, but only progressed on penalties. The form was very good and the motivation and morale (due to the penalty shoot-out won) was enormous. The role of favorite for Germany was okay from a playful perspective. They won all three games in the group of deaths against Portugal (1-0), Denmark (2-1) and the Netherlands (2-1). They also excelled against the Greeks in the quarter-finals with a 4-2. However, the defense was not solid.

If you know how both teams play, then you know that such a tactic will never work against the Italians. Prandelli was able to build up a stable defense from a very secure defense around world champion Buffon and deploy her counter-attacking football. Tactically, Löw miscalculated anyway with Özil and Kroos as special guards for Pirlo, but that could only be assumed after the announcement of the line-ups and that is usually shortly before the start of the game, so that live bets are attractive with such information! If you add the head-to-head comparison (Germany have never won against Italy in a competitive match, they last lost in the semifinals in 2006 0-2 in extra time in a bitter way), then you also have a psychological advantage, as well as a statistical underpinning for the outsider tip!

The result is well known: Italy reached the final of the European Championship relatively unchallenged and the odds of 5.00 were a gift and for us a very classic example of a value bet!